Ascension climate projections
Predicting the impacts of global change at a local scale
Climate change is a global phenomenon, but its impacts will not be uniformly felt and will be shaped by actions taken collectively by the international community over coming decades
In order to fully understand the implications for Ascension’s biodiversity, we must first have access to the best available projections of how the local and regional climate will change under the full spectrum of possible emission scenarios (or ‘shared socio-economic pathways’).
As part of the CRACAB project, scientists at the University of East Anglia are conducting a painstaking exercise in data archaeology to reconstruct recent changes in Ascension Island’s climate and using state-of-the-art global circulation models to project long-term trends in local air temperature and rainfall.
At the same time, marine ecosystem modellers at Plymouth Marine Laboratory are employing similar techniques to generate Ascension-specific predictions of how oceanographic variables such as water temperature, acidification, oxygenation and primary productivity will change over the next 100 years under “best case” and “worst case” scenarios. Follow the blog series below for updates on the progress of these exciting outputs.
Keep checking the blog for update on how this work package progresses.
NEWS & UPDATES
Pastures new: assisted migration of Ascension Island spurge as a climate mitigation strategy
Globally, many species face a growing problem as climate change intensifies. Species’ current ranges are often becoming hotter and drier. Suitable...
Climate forecasting for the Ascension Island Marine Protected Area
More than 99 % of Ascension Island’s territorial area is comprised of ocean. The ocean plays a key role in regulating Ascension’s climate, holds...
New Publication!
The long-term temperature and rainfall time series for Ascension Island compiled as part of the CRACAB project was recently published in the...
First 3D models of Ascension Island’s green turtle nesting beaches
Using imagery collected by drones, scientists at the University of Exeter have created the first high resolution 3D models of Ascension Island’s...
Exploring climatic influences on the breeding success of Ascension’s endemic frigatebird
One of the goals of the CRACAB project is to understand how contemporary climate variability influences the reproductive success of Ascension...
Reconstructing a century of climate change at Ascension Island
Phil Jones and David Lister from the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit explain how they have been compiling the first comprehensive dataset of temperature and rainfall observations for Ascension Island.